TLDR:

I almost did a major rebalance into bonds and international stock. I didn't end up doing it because I don't believe Trump has the political capital to ruin the US economy (and bc my wife made me rethink it).

If you are concerned about what is going on call your reps (be nice and nonpartisan) and potentially do more research and moderately shift your IPS as needed.

Intro:

I am usually a lurker on here. But after my experience last night, and given the commotion with the recent markets and the US institutional systems of finance and government, I thought it helpful to share my experience and perspective as to why I am staying the course. I want to thank a lot of the individuals in this subreddit who's posts have helped me stay the course over the past few months... Hopefully this too helps another fellow traveler and adds a bit of empathy and insight to the conversation...

Situation:

Like many people I have read Common Sense on Mutual Funds. I don't need to rehash or bastardize the book, but one of the principle ideas in the book, I believe, is the US and its corporations are a great place to invest because US institutions are strong. Bogle argues that US corporations offer great diversity internationally given how interconnected our world is today. In the end he argues that an international strategy isn't fully necessary.

I was skeptical when I initially read this. I kept 10% in a diversified international fund and left it at that. I am young and will refine my strategy as I learn more. I have time.

Needless to say I think its fair to be skeptical of those claims right now. The post WWII international order - which Bogle was a principal beneficiary of and refined his investing strategy in - is not necessarily collapsing, but is definitely getting a good shake down. I am worried about what is happening and I am especially worried about a what will happen when Trump's aspirations for low interest rates collide with the Fed.

Last night I was about to do a complete overhaul of my portfolio balance system which would have taken a lot of my investments out of the US stock market. Right now I am 70/10/20 in US stock/Int./Bond and was anticipating going to 33/33/33 across the board....however my amazing wife said no - "we stay the course."

After thinking a lot about it today I believe that is the right choice (although I still might convert 5%-10% US stock to a general EU or int. fund after some more research).

Reasoning:

I don't want to rehash the great advice on here. There are some really good history lessons recently on here that show the world market is generally resilient outside of the data presented in Common Sense on Mutual Funds. Check them out. But here is why I am still confident in the US.

I want to say first and foremost that - with regards to Trump's economic policy - I hope Trump changes course. I am a progressive Democrat, but I am not a accelerationist. I also want to be wrong about what I see as really bad economic policy.

I really don't want to be too political here, but I think one point I haven't heard as much on here is worth noting - political and economic friction within the US.

While there has been a growing frustration among American's with the current financial system - don't kid yourself - most people in the US rely on, advocate for, and trust in the strength of US financial institutions and the international order as it stands today. Social security, pensions, 401ks, IRAs, HSAs - you name it - rely on free trade and the current system.

This makes America unique from other autocratic regimes and presents a real source of political friction to Trump's economic agenda. Correct me if I am wrong but I doubt the people in 2010's Hungary or 1930's Germany were accustomed to vast government safety nets, pension, and retirement plans.

There has already been a lot of US election debrief but I think we can all confidently say that the plurality of people didn't vote for a complete overhaul of the US financial order and the international system of trade. Yes Trump won, but he won by a smaller margin than Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016. The 2024 Trump coalition is complex. Are there MAGA people who would love to see the international capitalist order burn? Sure. There are also quite a few "MAGA" people who seemed to have simply been fed up with the incumbent party. It was a trend across the world this year on both sides of the aisle.

We are already starting to see signs of pushback to the Trump agenda. Don't read too far into the polls, but Trump's aggregate approval rating according to RCP from February 1st through March 1st declined from +5.2% to +0.9%. That is a staggering amount of political capital to loose in a month after being elected. You are starting to see resistance at town halls. Anecdotal evidence from me sees center-right individuals who either voted for Trump or who sat out the election start to become disillusioned and/or ticked off. I see the corporations I work with day-to-day start to pause and re-evaluate and lobby against tariff policies.

Call me an optimist, but I believe that - based on evidence above - the American people will stand up for free trade and the financial institutions we rely on. Either Trump changes course (there is evidence that he's already pretty sensitive to the stock market), the GOP forces him to change course to try and preserve the GOP majority, or the Democrats take control of Congress in 2026.

My (And Your) Next Steps:

After a brief moment of weakness, I have decided I believe in the US financial system. We are strong. We are resilient. International, free trade capitalism - however flawed - is as American as apple pie. I believe the American people will fight for it.

Thing To Do #1: Call your reps

I anticipate they are getting lots of calls right now. Call your representatives. Try to be as non-partisan as possible. This isn't a political thing, its an American thing. Tell them what specific policies you are worried about and why. Tell them how you are worried those policies either will or are hurting you economically. Be nice about it too - especially if you disagree with your representative politically.

Thing To Do #2: Research more into international investing

I will admit this was the kick in my pants to look more closely at how I diversify my portfolio internationally. I thought I had lots of time to figure that out. I still do, but I will be looking at this more closely. Tips from the brave souls who read to the end here are welcome.