The last nine national champs (and 11 of the past 12 (of course UConn 2014 is the exception)) all had this in common through the first 9 games of their season

A top 4 Kenpom ranking. All the other stats and trends and whatnot are interesting, but it's been pretty simple: You have to be good early against your non-con schedule to have the juice to make a run in March.

After their 9th game, here were the KenPom rankings of each of the past 12 national champs:

2024 UConn: 3

2023 UConn: 4

2022 Kansas: 3

2021 Baylor: 2

2019 UVA: 2

2018 Villanova 1

2017 UNC: 3

2016 Villanova: 4

2015 Duke: 2

2014 UConn: 21

2013 Louisville: 3

2012 Kentucky: 2

If this recent historic trend holds up, these four just need to avoid a complete collapse in their next game to be ranked top 4 after their ninth game:

Auburn
Tennessee
Duke
Gonzaga

Obviously anyone CAN win six games in March, especially really talented ones with great coaches (Kansas, Iowa St, Alabama). I'm curious if in four months we'll see one of these four teams cutting down the nets. Feels like a pretty solid group to pick from.