An unfortunate reality: Ahmad al-Shara is the only barrier against a full massacre against the Alawites in Syria.

**Not my words, copied with credits below** But I endrose this view hence this post.

I remember discussing with some fellow experts the fate of Alawites in which I tried to explain why the Alawites should be happy that they weren't massacred. The violations that happened today are unfortunately only a glimpse into what may be possible if there wasn't the leadership of Shara.

Yes, it is unpleasant to accept the realities of Syrians. Most Syrians hold - not without a reason - the Alawites responsible for the crimes of the Assad regime. Especially after the images from Sadnaya prison resurfaced, many Syrians wanted to massacre the Alawites. Shara stopped it. For a long time, he succeeded.

However, the Alawite community hasn't understood the reality they were in. In my meetings with Alawites I repeatedly saw that there is zero self-reflection on the past mistakes of the Alawites and the role of their community facilitating the crimes of the Assad regime. On the contrary, the Alawite community thought that they can demand from the Syrian government and the Syrian people without any real transitional justice. The Alawite community continued to harbor and protect regime cells within their community. Many hoped that Assad may somehow return. When fake news spread about the return of Maher al-Assad, many Alawites celebrated.

The non-Alawite Syrians were triggered a lot by this attitude of the Alawites. The absence of self-relection and the wish for the return of the Assad regime broke any hope for social reconciliation. Internal pressure on Shara is very high for him to end the soft-handed approach towards the Alawites. Many argued that the Alawites need to be intimidated and be shown power.

While social tensions were high but lingering below the surface due to Shara's vision for social cohesion in Syria, regime remnants prepared for an insurgency.

Thousands of Alawite young men are now unemployed. They are no longer in the army and have lost their salaries as ghost state employees.

Yesterday, regime remnants kicked off an uprising in Syria's coastal region. The Syrian government forces were besieged and cornered in several locations, including hospitals. Some government convoys were ambushed.

As a response, all former rebel factions mobilized from across Syria. Even units of the Syrian army from Deir Ezzour went to Latakia. However, the integration of former rebels into the Syrian army is still in process. Command structures aren't fully established.

Social tensions, the desire for revenge, the lack of self-reflection of the Alawite community, as well as a not yet fully functioning command structure and discipline led to the violations we have seen today.

Yes, the scale of violations is not comparable with the scale of violations by the Assad regime or what anyone would have guessed for a post-Assad Syria a year ago, but it is still troubling.

Ahmad al-Shara is in a though position. He doesn't have full control over what is happening on the ground. Emotions are very high. A soft military reaction would risk instability and counter-revolution by regime remnants and lose him support among his support base. On the other side, these kinds of violations risk Syria's future and international standing.

As of now, the public speach by Shara tries to walk this tight balance. On one side, he re-affirms a strong stance against regime remnants. On the other side, he argues that they have to be better than the regime, and stated that the people responsible for violations will be held accountable.

Following Shara's speach, some Syrian army members were arrested due to violations. Videos emerged of Syrian army members handing over food and supplies to Alawite citizens.

However, as long as the Alawite community doesn't have a self-reflection on their past relationship with the Assad regime, I expect repeated action by regime remnants that will fuel sectarian hatred and violence.

Credit: https://x.com/OmerOzkizilcik/status/1898145959072170135