My theory on the disappearance of Brian Shaffer

This is my new pet case. Possibly the strangest disappearance I have ever heard of. (Charley Project link: https://charleyproject.org/case/brian-randall-shaffer)

Bit of background on the case, to those who havent heard of it yet. Shaffer was a 27 year old boy who studied medicine at Ohio State University, in his final year at the time of his disappearance. On 1 April 2006, the final night before Spring Break, Shaffer and his former roommate went bar hopping in the Columbus area following a stressful few weeks of examinations. Long story short, at around 1:15 am, after visiting several drinking establishments in the area, Shaffer and 2 of his friends were caught on CCTV going up the escalator to visit the Ugly Tuna Saloona, a bar located in the Gateway Film Center on High Street, Columbus.

A short time later, at around 1:55am, Brian was again seen on CCTV footage outside the bar, talking to 2 young girls, before saying goodbye and apparently heading back towards the entrance of the bar and out of view of the cameras (this video will show a portion of the CCTV footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqMDMazNPsU). This was the last time he was ever seen. The bar closed a mere 5 minutes later, at 2am, and every single person who entered the bar that night was seen leaving on CCTV, apart from Brian. Police were able to verify that every person who was seen entering the establishment was also seen leaving the establishment, except Brian.

This happened on early Saturday morning and Brian was only reported missing on the Monday (or Tuesday?) I believe. It is also believed that, while at the Ugly Tuna Saloona, Brian was somehow separated from his friends. Since he was never seen leaving, then where is he? What happened to him? According to his friends who were with him that night, they repeatedly tried calling Brian after the bar closed, mere minutes after Brian was last seen on CCTV. This would suggest that either Brian or someone else turned his phone off, destroyed it, or his battery simply died. Nonetheless, Brian disappeared within a 5 minute window. His friends were seen leaving the bar just after 2am.

So clearly, Brian either did not leave the bar at all (or at least not alive) or he exited via another route. Some of the locals who frequent the bar quite often have stated on here, and on Websleuths, that there is no "construction exit" or "service door". Even if there was one back in 2006, it would have been highly unlikely for him to have gone there. On the CCTV, you can clearly see 2 police officers standing at the top of the escalators. He would have been spotted trying to use an unauthorised exit right in front of the cops' eyes, and they would have stopped him. So I am sure he did not leave through the service door.

Another option is that he left via the emergency exit. Again, this is highly unlikely. First of all, why would he use the emergency exit if he could just leave normally like everyone else? Secondly, the emergency exit would have triggered an alarm and a camera would have caught him, too. So this is also extremely unlikely imo.

Another option is that he left through some "employee exit" but from what I have gathered, there was no "employee exit". All the employees used the same exit as the patrons, down the escalator. Even when they removed trash, they would still use the same exit as everyone else. The bar is situated on the second floor, not ground level. It is believed that a band who was playing at the bar that night allegedly left through some "employee exit" but according to locals, there is no employee exit and everyone leaves through the same exit. When the cops said that they could account for everyone leaving the bar through the main exit that night, I would assume that this includes the band and the employees, too. So it is again unlikely, if not impossible, that he left through this alleged exit.

That leaves only 3 possibilities. Either he simply left via the normal exit and was not picked up on camera and was then taken by some serial killer, or he left by jumping over the balcony and landed on the roof of one of the restaurants below, or he never left the bar at all, or at least not alive.

It is possible that he left normally and the CCTV simply did not pick him up, but this is extremely unlikely. This was a 6 foot 2 guy, taller than most of the other patrons. So its unlikely that anyone else could have obscured his view going down the escalator. Also, police and family members have watched the footage over and over again, and they are "100% sure" that he did not go back down the escalator that night. Furthermore, NONE of the cameras in the surrounding areas picked him up either, so its extremely unlikely that he just left normally. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

If he left by jumping over the balcony, the question beckons: Why? Why did he decide to leave that way? Why not just leave where everyone else leaves? Why go through all that trouble to leave the bar and not be detected by cameras? And how would no one else have seen him down on the streets below? This was a highly trafficked area, with lots of students making their way home from a night out on the town. SOMEONE must have picked it up, yet no one did. And it also does not make sense that the ONE person who left through abnormally happened to be the one person who went missing that night. Too much of a coincidence imo. So I think its possible that he left via the balcony, but again, its highly unlikely.

That leaves me with only one conclusion: Something happened to him in that bar. The simplest explanation is also often the most likely. He was never seen leaving, therefore he probably did not leave. Given that it was closing time and most of the patrons have left around the time he went missing, its not too far fetched to think someone could have harmed him there with little to no witnesses. I think that he either got involved in a fight in the bar, perhaps with some of the staff, and was killed in the process and his body removed from the premises the following day (with help from other bar staff, or maybe not), or he overdosed on something, the staff panicked and covered it up. I tend to lean towards the former. Bar brawls are extremely common. In a drunken state, he could have said the wrong thing to the wrong person, took a punch to the face and was accidentally killed in the process. This seems the most likely and most logical to me.

Now, it seems like the general consensus in the true crime community is that Brian simply left the bar and was murdered by a serial killer afterwards. I am not buying that, personally. If it were a serial killer, then we would have heard of other killings in the area, too (I also dont buy the Smiley Face killer thing either). Besides, what are the odds of the one person who was not seen leaving the bar, also being a victim of some serial killer? I dont buy that at all, I think its extremely unlikely. Brian was a big strong guy too, hardly a target for your average serial killer.

To summarize: I think Brian never left that bar alive. Something happened there, perhaps some things were said or done, he got into an altercation with one of the staff members or one of the patrons, his body was hidden in the premises overnight and removed in a trash compartment the next day, before being thrown in a dumpster nearby. This is the only theory that makes a bit of sense. All the other angles are just too far fetched imo. The simplest explanations are often the most likely.