CMV: unless they overthrow democracy. It is very likely Trump lose the midterms.
It is important to recognize that the upcoming midterm elections present a significant challenge for Trump, as there is a strong possibility he may not secure victory. I think the Dems win in the house. While it is not beyond the realm of possibility for him to prevail, historical trends indicate that the MAGA movement tends to rally predominantly around Trump himself. This is evident in the outcomes of many endorsed candidates who have faced defeat in their respective races.
Currently, the markets are experiencing a series of challenging days, and there is a legitimate concern that we could be heading towards a recession. Rising inflation and increasing costs across various sectors are contributing to this uncertainty. Even if measures are taken to curb spending, they may not substantially impact the deficit, and any attempts to do so could inadvertently harm the economy further.
In the event of a loss, it is likely that the MAGA movement will seek to attribute their defeat to external factors such as the Biden administration or immigration policies. It is also essential to note that many regulatory decisions are made at the local level, and the establishment of new manufacturing facilities requires considerable time and investment.
Given these factors, it appears unlikely that we will experience a robust economy in the near future.