It’s time to call bullshit

I’ll share a screenshot of my positions in a thread below, so if that’s all you’re here for go ahead and look.

My fellow regards, I believe it’s time to call bullshit on this market. Please understand, I don’t care who you voted for… I guarantee I like you a hell of a lot more than I like the banks, and that is exactly who the winner is going to be unless people wake up to the reality of our situation quickly.

Before touching any kind of political news, let’s start with market indicators.

BofA’s recent mm survey showed that most MM’s are reducing their share of US equities (source 1 below), there are other signs the banks are getting out as well (check my second to last post), BlackRock is struggling to find buyers.

At the same time, a record number of American households now own stock in US equities (source 2 below). Now, from what I know about American households (I live in one), most of us live paycheck to paycheck… we don’t really have money to put into stocks willy-nilly.

So what does all of this mean?

Well, my thesis is that the average American has their rent/mortgage in US equities tied up in stocks like Tesla right now as an act of patriotism… what saddens me most is that I appreciate this general sentiment (not for Tesla necessarily, but I do actually love my country despite what the news may tell you), but the banks are taking advantage of it. So what happens when all the sudden everyone has to pay their bills?

That’s right… another mass sell off.

Please believe me when I say that I hope I’m wrong, this is not going to be good for average, working people with, at the very least, good-hearted intentions… but I don’t see any signs to indicate that I am.

Now we’ll touch a bit on economic outlook and history:

We are currently still in a battle with inflation, JPow said it yesterday, even before tariffs we were looking at 2 more years before we return to normal and the outlook with tariffs puts it all on pause. He hedged to say ‘they aren’t sure how tariffs will affect inflation’, let me fill in the gap there: either tariffs will affect inflation (because the costs are passed on to consumers) or they will affect earnings (because companies absorb them)… the money has to come from somewhere. If it affects inflation, the fed will be forced to raise interest rates or at the very least pause on cuts indefinitely. If it doesn’t affect inflation, it will affect earnings/growth… if this sounds familiar, then you may have heard of stagflation. And if you study the history of the federal reserve, you may know what the solution to that problem is… Volcker’s hammer. You can look it up yourself but the gist is that in the late 70’s we had been battling inflation and stagnant growth for years, until Paul Volcker was appointed to head the federal reserve and raised interest rates to 20%… it absolutely crushed the economy, sent us to the stone ages… but it did reset our inflation and led us into a very booming 80’s.

I want to reiterate… I don’t like either side politically, they’re all in bed with the banks. The only reason I’m posting this is because I’m angry at the thought of them getting super leveraged on overpriced stocks and then dumping it on average people. This has so many shades of 2008 it’s not funny. Feel free to argue, bet against me, whatever… I genuinely don’t care. I’ve been a value investor since I was 14 and I’m currently 28. I held through 2020 and 2022, this time feels much much different.

Whatever you decide to do with this information, be safe out there.

Sources: 1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-18/bofa-survey-shows-biggest-ever-drop-in-exposure-to-us-equities 2. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/us-households-are-more-invested-in-stocks-than-ever-and-its-distorting-market-valuation-says-jpmorgan.html